A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
